The Effect of Dollar Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Interest Rates on the Gold Price Index Using the Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach
Keywords:
gold prices, dollar exchange rate, inflation, interest rates, error correction modelAbstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of the dollar exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates on gold prices in Indonesia during the period 2020-2024. Employing the Error Correction Model (ECM), this research finds that in the long run, the dollar exchange rate and inflation have a significant and positive impact on gold prices, while interest rates are not significant. In the short run, no independent variables significantly affect gold prices. The cointegration test results indicate a long-term relationship between the variables. The error correction term (ECT) coefficient is significant, indicating an adjustment mechanism towards long-term equilibrium. This study provides empirical evidence that the dollar exchange rate and inflation play an important role in determining gold prices in Indonesia.
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