ARDL Modeling on Energy Consumption, Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Indonesia
Keywords:
ARDL, CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, economic growthAbstract
This study analyzes the effect of energy consumption and economic growth on CO₂ emissions in Indonesia in the short and long-term using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The data used are secondary time series data for the period 1991-2021. The results of the stationarity test indicate that the variables of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions are stationary at the first differentiation level I(1), while economic growth is stationary at level I(0). The Bounds Test cointegration test produces an F-statistic value of 5.216879 which is greater than the upper limit at the 5% significance level, indicating a stable long-term relationship between the variables. The results of the long-term estimation show that energy consumption and economic growth do not have a significant effect on CO₂ emissions. Meanwhile, in the short term, energy consumption shows a negative and significant effect at lag 1 and lag 3, while economic growth shows a dynamic effect with changing direction depending on the time period.
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